Event
On November 21, 2025, a 28-point “peace framework” attributed to former U.S. President Donald Trump was circulated through Axios and subsequently amplified by Western media, European outlets, and Ukrainian state-aligned channels. At its core: a 10-year bilateral security guarantee for Ukraine, modeled functionally—but not legally—on NATO’s Article 5. In exchange, Kyiv must permanently renounce NATO membership, cap its military size, and accept a long-term “non-aligned” status underwritten by Washington.
Superficially, this is a peace plan.
In reality, it is strategic containment rebranded as victory.
Sources
- Interfax — U.S. plan for Ukraine includes security guarantees based on NATO Article 5
- Forbes — Axios learns of Trump's plan to give Ukraine security guarantees similar to NATO
- Lenta.ru — U.S. plan for Ukraine: security guarantees, Zelenskyy's reaction and politicians' responses
- Meduza — Axios: U.S. plan to end the war includes security guarantees for Ukraine modeled on NATO Article 5
- Коммерсантъ — Donald Trump's 28-point plan to end the conflict
- Yle.fi — Trump's peace plan for Ukraine published
- Vedomosti — Overview of key provisions of the U.S. plan, security guarantees, and recovery mechanisms
- DW — Axios: U.S. offers Ukraine guarantees similar to NATO Article 5 for the first time
- RBC — Europe and Ukraine's reaction to Trump's 28-point peace plan
- Mail.ru — Full text of the U.S. peace plan for Ukraine
THE ILLUSION OF ARTICLE 5
Multiple sources—Forbes, DW, Meduza, Interfax—emphasize the “NATO-like” nature of the guarantee. But the distinction is not semantic; it is architectural.
- NATO Article 5 is collective, binding, and institutionalized.
- Trump’s guarantee is bilateral, time-bound (10 years), and revocable by executive order.
This is not alliance. It is clientelism with a deadline.
The guarantee includes:
- U.S. military response in case of renewed Russian aggression
- Real-time intelligence sharing
- Economic stabilization funds tied to “reform benchmarks”
- Joint defense industrial coordination
But crucially, no automaticity. No treaty ratification. No congressional lock-in. Just a presidential declaration—reversible with the next administration, or even the next tweet.
Zelenskyy’s team called it a “big win.” But victory defined by surrender of strategic autonomy is not victory. It is managed dependency.
THE ARCHITECTURE OF THE DEAL
| Layer | Mechanism | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Physical | Capped Ukrainian army size (~250,000), banned long-range missiles, demilitarized buffer zones in Donbas | Prevent Ukraine from becoming an offensive threat to Russia — or a liability to the U.S. |
| Technological | U.S.-controlled ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) integration; encrypted comms tied to U.S. networks | Ensure Ukraine’s defense is enabled—but not independent |
| Information | Framing the plan as “de facto NATO protection” across Meduza, DW, Kommersant, Yle | Calm European anxiety, suppress Kyiv’s NATO ambitions, legitimize compromise |
| Consciousness | Zelenskyy’s “big victory” narrative vs. quiet acceptance of non-alignment | Create emotional payoff for surrender; make constraint feel like gain |
This is not diplomacy. It is systemic pacification—Ukraine as a buffer state with a security subscription.
WHY NOW? THE GEOPOLITICAL STACK
The timing is no accident. The plan surfaces amid:
- Pentagon’s full AR surveillance rollout on the U.S.-Mexico border (Aug 2025) — signaling internal militarization as norm
- New DF-26 missile drills by China (Nov 2025) — challenging U.S. power projection in the Pacific
- Stalled U.S. military aid packages — growing fatigue in Congress over “open-ended commitments”
In this context, the Trump plan offers a clean exit ramp:
“We protect Ukraine—not as an ally, but as a managed asset.”
It satisfies:
- Hawks: “We’re still deterring Russia.”
- Doves: “We’re not escalating to war with a nuclear power.”
- Realists: “We lock Europe into long-term burden-sharing without treaty obligations.”
Ukraine becomes the price of transatlantic cohesion.
THE FLIP: FROM SOVEREIGNTY TO MANAGED STATUS
Recall the pattern:
Autonomy is granted only when it can be revoked.
Ukraine fought for sovereignty. What it gets is conditional protection—a security lease that expires in 2035.
And what happens then?
- If Russia is weakened: U.S. may renew, or push for EU-led framework.
- If U.S. pivots to China: Ukraine becomes expendable.
- If Trump (or another isolationist) returns: guarantee evaporates overnight.
This is not peace.
It is deferred abandonment—wrapped in the language of strength.
SIGNAL VS. SUBSTANCE
Western media treat this as a breakthrough. But look at what’s missing:
- No mention of Crimea
- No binding Russian concessions
- No enforcement mechanism beyond U.S. goodwill
The plan stabilizes the front line—not justice, not restoration, not strategic closure.
It freezes the conflict at a moment favorable to Western logistics and Russian exhaustion.
Ukraine gets a shield—but only as long as it stands exactly where it’s told.
CONCLUSION: THE CONTROL STACK IN THE PEACE PROCESS
This “peace plan” reveals a deeper truth:
When you cannot win a war, you redesign the rules of peace to serve your strategic continuity.
The Trump framework is not about ending the war.
It’s about embedding U.S. influence in Ukraine’s security architecture without the costs of alliance.
- Physical layer: capped army = no offensive capability
- Technological layer: U.S.-dependent ISR = no independent deterrence
- Information layer: “NATO-like” framing = manufactured legitimacy
- Consciousness layer: “big victory” = emotional compliance
This is the new face of hegemony:
Not occupation. Not alliance. But conditional guardianship.
“Peace is not the absence of war,” one State Department source noted anonymously.
“It’s the presence of terms you can live with—until you can’t.”
— Control Stack, November 21, 2025
→ Further signal decoding: thecontrolstack.blogspot.com
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